Investing in the next F1 rookie card (a look at current F1 & F2 rookie Topps F1 trading card sales…)

Trading card collectors know that just like world champion titles, Lewis and Max trading cards currently dominate the higher value secondary market sales. However, savvy collectors are always on the lookout for speculative rookie cards in the hope that in the longer term they kick on to become an F1 champion and the card value appreciates accordingly.

The value of a rookie card often follows the career trajectory of that driver. For every F2 or GP2 champ that goes on to replicate success in F1 like George Russell, Charles Leclerc, Lewis Hamilton, Pierre Gasly, etc. there are a forgotten army of rookie drivers that never graduate to F1 and move into other racing categories or fade into the distant memory.

It’s worth looking at some of the recent secondary market sales of rookie cards to see how these cards are currently trading.

Current F1 rookies

Oscar Piastri

Of the 2023 F1 rookies, Oscar easily has the most impressive CV and rated as a potential future world champion. Oscar’s rookie cards only appear from Topps’ 2021 season following his successful 2020 F2 championship title. There are also Oscar rookie cards in the Topps’ 2022 collection but 2021 cards (being earlier) are a more genuine reflection of Oscar’s rookie status. The fact that he sat out the 2022 season during which it was unclear whether he would be promoted to a race seat in 2023 by Alpine, meant that last year was probably the best time to invest in a 2021 Oscar Piastri F2 rookie card as their values would have dropped off due to lack of news.

When I first put pen to paper for this post back in April, it was still early days in the 2023 season but Oscar’s performances in the early sub-par McLaren MCL60 looked promising. With the mid-season updates to the McLaren, Oscar put in some eye raising drives and cemented his reputation as a likely potential race winner.

Piastri 2021 Purple Sapphire Refractor sold for $US2000 in early April 2023

Recent high Piastri rookie card sales include:

• 2021 Topps Chrome Red Sapphire #59 (#/5 cards, PSA grade 9) – $US3,431 (auction – Nov 2023).
• 2021 Topps Chrome Gold Refractor Autographed CA-OP (#/50 cards, PSA grade 10)- $US1009 (auction – April 2023); $US1025 (auction Oct 2023).

There appears to be decent depth to Oscar’s cards which is a good indicator of collector interest. Oscar was F2 champion in 2021 so his 2021 Topps portrait card #59 is currently his rookie card of choice. Although he wasn’t on the grid in 2022  Topps did include a F1 award winners card #199 in the 2022 Topps set. The 2023 Topps collection is when we will see his official F1 rookie card which will no doubt be sought after. His sprint race and podiums this year have also been captured in the Topps Now collection, however Topps Now parallel cards are around the $US100 mark.

Probability of driving in F1 in 2024: 100% (confirmed until 2026)

Logan Sargeant

Logan Sargeant started off the season with his F1 debut at 2023 Bahrain GP impressively showing some quick times. Sargeant also fought for the F3 title with Piastri in 2019 but being the first American driver on the grid since Liberty Media’s ownership takeover of F1 and start of the Drive to Survive series, has the unenviable task of flying the American flag to F1’s new US fanbase. Given, the US is the strongest collector base for Topps trading cards, Logan’s on track performance and his card values are no doubt going to be closely monitored. The 2023 season turned out to be a difficult one for Logan, but he did pick up his solitary maiden point at the US GP at COTA.

Logan doesn’t feature in the 2020 and 2021 Topps collections and his F2 rookie cards appear in the 2022 Topps series.

An ungraded Sargeant red refractor rookie card sold for $US3000+ earlier this year

High rookie card sales include:

• 2022 Topps Chrome F2 Rookie Red Refractor Autographed (#2/5 cards, ungraded) – US$3100 (best offer, April 2023)
• 2022 Topps Chrome F2 Rookie Orange base Autographed (#13/25 cards, ungraded) – $US850 (best offer, April 2023)
• 2023 Topps Chrome F2 Rookie Green Refractor Autographed (#10/99 cards, PSA grade 10) – US$670 (auction, March 2023)

As the season progressed, Logan’s card values dropped reflecting his on track struggling form. Most recently in October, one of Logan’s red Chrome sapphire cards sold at auction for $US330. If Logan can have a better season in 2024, expect his card values to increase as he will no doubt have more media attention being the sole American F1 driver in over a decade.

Like Oscar, Logan’s F1 rookie card will feature in the 2023 Topps F1 set.

Probability of driving in F1 in 2024: 100% ( recently confirmed for next season).

Nyck De Vries

Nyck de Vries is a somewhat of an anomaly. At 28, he’s a former F2 and Formula E champion, an ex-Mercedes reserve, ex-Alpine test driver and former stand-in driver in season 2022 for McLaren and Williams but he has no Topps Chrome driver portrait card (Topps F1 cards only commenced from the 2020 season when Nyck was racing in Formula E). His only Topps F1 card to date, is a Topps Now series card #56 featuring his surprise stand-in F1 race debut in the Williams FW44 car at last year’s Italian GP at Monza.

Back in April when looking at my first draft of this post, Nyck’s 2023 form in the AlphaTauri had a big question mark with lots of savage rumours he was next in a long line of Red Bull drivers to be moved aside midseason due to performance issues. Low and behold, he didn’t survive and Danny Ric was swapped in.

Although Nyck did feature in this year’s 2023 Topps Attax series cards, it’s possible he might be missing from the 2023 Topps Chrome collection to be released early next year! Let’s hope he is though. Jokes aside, it might be that his Topps Now card in the Williams could be his peak F1 card.

One thing is certain though, his #56 Topps Now is without doubt, Nyck’s official rookie trading card even though it includes Topps’ “RC” flag rookie symbol.

At the moment, Nyck’s 2022 Topps Now base card routinely trades within the $US5-20 range while the blue background version of the card fetches a higher price (one auction price in April 2023 was $US182 for PSA grade 9) but with Nyck unlikely to race again in F1, his card values are unlikely to reach any major highs anytime soon.

Probability of driving in F1 in 2024: 0% (will be Toyota WEC driver next season).

Liam Lawson

Liam Lawson was the surprise super-sub debutant this season for AlphaTauri – and he arguably performed pretty well too. Liam was in F2 for 2 seasons, so he has F2 rookie cards in both 2021 and 2022 collections. With his debut race and points finish, he also has 2023 Topps Now cards celebrating these achievements.

Liam’s 2021 Gold Refractor autograph card typically fetches US$300+

His recent rookie card sales include:

• 2021 Orange Refractor w/ autograph ungraded – Oct 2023 US$550.
• 2021 Green Refractor w/ autograph PSA 10 – Oct 2023 $US400.
• 2022 Orange Refractor w/ autograph ungraded – Dec 2023 – $US204.

Although Liam was looked over for the 2024 AlphaTauri drive, he’s very likely to land a full time drive in 2025. …and depending on what happens with Checo and Danny Ric in 2024, he may even be back in the cockpit much earlier…

Probability of driving in F1 in 2024: 50% (reserve Red Bull driver).

Others

Mick Schumacher and Zhou Guan Yu both can no longer be classified as rookies but their respective card values seem to reflect much better collector demand, possibly due to Mick’s family heritage and Zhou’s Chinese fan base.

There’s a lot of question marks over whether Mick will ever return to the F1 grid, so the future value of his cards are hard to predict.

On the other hand, Zhou has on a few occasions put Valterri in the shade at Alfa Romeo and with the Chinese GP making a return next year in 2024 after a long absence due to COVID lockdowns, it’s a reasonably safe bet that Zhou cards will remain popular with his Chinese fanbase. Zhou’s rookie cards have fetched good prices in the past, so these could well be a good investment. In fact, Zhou (who raced against Oscar Piastri in F2) is a good example of a driver who didn’t set the junior categories on fire but have surprised on the upside after graduating to the F1 grid.

Of the up and coming drivers, we need look at current crop of F2 and F1 reserve drivers. The end of season Abu Dhabi rookie test gave us some clues as to potential future F1 pilots.

Felipe Drugovich

The 2022 F2 champion and Aston Martin’s 2023 reserve driver was tantalising close to actually making his F1 debut at this year’s season opener at Bahrain due to Lance Stroll’s wrist injury. With Brazilian sponsor backing and quick practice times, he was a rumoured candidate for Logan’s 2024 Williams seat. Felipe did race for several seasons in F2, so you will see his cards in the 2020, 2021 and 2022 Topps sets.

His recent rookie card sales include:

• 2022 Chrome superfactor PSA – Nov 2023 – Nov 2023 – $US3,650
• 2022 Chrome card #139 superfractor PSA 10 – Dec 2023 – $US839 (auction)
• 2020 Chrome purple refractor PSA10 – Nov 2023 – $US590

Probability of driving in F1 in 2024 or beyond: 50% (subbing for Lance); 25% (subbing for Fernando) during 2024. Bigger chance for 2025.

Theo Pourchaire

2021 Chrome orange autograph refractor sold for over $AUD2000 earlier in the year

Theo Pourchaire is newly crowned 2023 F2 champion and Alfa Romeo (now Sauber) reserve driver. Theo had long been rumoured as an outside chance for a F1 seat this season since last year but with Bottas and Zhou re-confirmed for 2024, he becomes yet another F2 champion that doesn’t graduate to a F1 seat in the following season.

His recent rookie card sales include:

• 2021 Chrome Sapphire Red (#/5) ungraded – Nov 2023 $US650
• 2021 Chrome Gold wave autograph – Nov 2023 – US$226 auction

It’s interesting that Theo’s 2021 Chrome cards seem to be most popular in value as it was his first F2 season.

Probability of driving in F1 in 2024 or beyond: 10% in 2024

Frederik Vesti

2022 Vesti Gold Refractor Autograph card

Frederik Vesti was battling with Theo Pourchaire for this year’s F2 title. He has been in several seasons of F2 already but is currently a Mercedes academy driver. Briefly touted as a possible replacement for Logan Sargeant for 2024 but nothing happened.

Vesti’s recent rookie card sales include:

• 2022 Chrome red checkered X-fractor ungraded – Nov 2023 $US257
• 2022 Chrome gold autographed ungraded – Nov 2023 $US159

Probability of driving in F1 in 2024 or beyond: 0% for 2024

Ayumu Iwasa

Iwasa was earlier in the season leading this year’s F2 drivers championship and some fans even saw him as a better prospect than cult fan favourite Yuki Tsunoda (and possibly even replacing Yuki at AlphaTauri next season) but his title challenge faded. Iwasa featured for AlphaTauri in the 2023 Abu Dhabi end season tests.

Recent trading card sales:

• 2022 Chrome red wave refractor PSA10 – Nov 2023 US$231
• 2022 Chrome orange refractor SGC10 – Oct 2023 US$154 auction
• 2022 Chrome green autograph refractor ungraded – Sep 2023 $US70 best offer

Ayuma moves to Superformula series in Japan in 2024.

Probability of driving in F1 in 2024 or beyond: 0% for 2024

Jack Doohan

2022 Chrome red refactor autograph recently sold for $US600

The son of MotoGP champion Mick Doohan, Jack has contested F2 for 2 seasons and is Alpine’s favoured reserve driver. Given Alpine’s debacle with the previous reserve, Oscar Piastri – Alpine will be very conscious of seen to be paying more attention to pathways of their academy drivers.

Jack won’t return to F2 in 2024 and has chosen to completely focus on being the Alpine reserve driver. Given the potential volatility of the Ocon-Gasly combination, his chances of a cameo drive sometime in 2024 is actually not that remote.

Recent Doohan trading card sales:

• 2022 Chrome red refractor autograph ungraded (Nov 2023) – $US600
• 2022 Chrome gold refractor autograph PSA 10 (Nov 2023 – $US188 auction; Dec 2023 – $US185 best offer)

Probability of driving in F1 in 2024 or beyond: 30% for 2024 but much higher for 2025 season.

Robert Shwartzman

The trading cards of current Scuderia Ferrari reserve driver, Robert Shwartzman (who was also Oscar Piastri’s F2 teammate at Prema) has somewhat fallen off the radar this year and seem to generally be sub US$50 with occasional prices of some cards in the US$50-100 band.

Most Shwartzman Topps Chrome cards are sub $50. This 2021 autographed Gold Wave went for $108USD

Robert could end up being the forgotten man and may never race in F1.

If either Leclerc or Sainz were unavailable to race in 2024, one wonders whether Ferrari would actually drop Robert into the race seat or opt for Antonio Giovinazzi.

Probability of driving in F1 in 2024 or beyond: 0% for 2024

F3 drivers

The current crop of F3 drivers are probably where the next F1 drivers are going to graduate from. These young drivers include:

• Gabrielle Bortoletto – The Brazilian won the 2023 F3 crown, will race in F2 and has signed on with McLaren’s Driver Development Program for 2024.
• Oliver Bearman – highly rated Brit is a Ferrari academy and Haas rookie driver.
• Zak O’Sullivan – Williams Academy driver and moves to race in F2 in 2024.
• Franco Colapinto – Williams Academy driver and also moves to F2 in 2024. The Argentinian has good backing, so expect to see his name on the grid possibly in 2026.

All these drivers have 2023 Topps Turbo Attax F1 cards (and Oliver Bearman even has a 2023 Topps Now card) but probably won’t appear in Chrome sets until 2024 collection is released.

Oliver Bearman’s back to back Baku F2 wins this year earnt him a Topps Now card

The non-F3 driver that also needs mention is 17 year old Mercedes academy pilot Andrea Kimi Antonelli who will skip F3 and be fast tracked in F2 next year. Andrea is already being hailed as the next Max Verstappen and so everyone will be keenly tracking his progress next year. I’m not aware of Andrea having a trading card yet (being in F4 this year) but with his entry to F2 in 2024, he should first feature in Topps Turbo Attax 2024 collection.

Outside chances?

Alex Palou’s 2023 Indy500 card

Aside from F3, F2 and F1 reserve drivers, there are also some potential left of field rookies for future F1 drivers. These are mainly from Indycar, with current Indycar drivers Pato O’ward, Alex Palou and Colton Herta in the wings. If Andretti gets added as a new 11th team, it’s highly likely that a name driver from the US Indycar ranks will be chosen to make the switch over to F1.

• Pato O’Ward – the Mexican is actually part of the McLaren reserve driver pool.
• Alex Palou – the Spaniard is the current & 2 time Indycar champion.
• Colton Herta – this time least year, the American was being targeted for the AlphaTauri seat but the idea died with his insufficient Superlicence points.

Topps obviously don’t produce or licensed for Indycar and I haven’t spent any time looking at Indycar trading cards.

While Pato and Alex have had seat time in F1 practice sessions, the fact they aren’t American actually goes to show the high expectation on Logan Sargeant (from Liberty Media and Netflix) as the only genuine American born & bred driver in F1 probably for the next few seasons.